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FACT SHEET:
Climate change, air pollution
and ecosystems
in the Polish-Saxon border area
Climate change, air pollution and
critical load of ecosystems
in the Polish-Saxon border region

3
The EU project KLAPS (Climate change, air pollution and critical load of eco-
systems in the Polish-Saxon border area) determines the trans boundary influ-
ence of climate change on concentration and deposition of air pollutants,
supra-regional impacts on environmental load limits and the influence of
changing climatic conditions on population, tourism and agriculture. The fact
sheet briefly and concisely summarises the results obtained within the project
KLAPS. Information about current and possible future trends of climate and
air quality as well as the impact of climate change are presented according to
target groups. Detailed overviews of the applied methods and results are given
in
“Climate in the Polish-Saxon border area”
(
MEHLER
et al. 2014) and
“Climate
projections, air pollution and critical load of ecosystems”
(
SCHWARZAK
et al. 2014).
The project is financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
as an INTERREG IV A project within the cross-border cooperation programme
between Poland and Saxony 2007–2013.
Project partners are the Saxon State Agency for Environment, Agriculture and
Geology (Lead Partner), and on the Polish side, the Department of Climato-
logy and Atmosphere Protection of the Institute of Geography and Regional
Development at the University of Wrocław and the Institute of Meteorology and
Water Management – National Research Institute, Wrocław branch.
Objective of the cross-border project is to raise awareness of the inhabitants
and stakeholders as well as knowledge transfer to ensure suitable and early
mitigation and adaptation measurements on climate change in the border
region.
Foreword

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4
General climatic conditions
The project region is situated in a climatic transitio-
nal zone between maritime Western European and
continental Eastern European climate in the west
wind zone
(Fig. 1)
.
Regional climatic differences are decisively influen-
ced by altitude and mountains as the Ore Moun-
tains, Zittau Mountains, Jizera and Giant Moun-
tains in the south of the project area. While air
temperature is decreasing with increasing height,
the pre cipitation amount is rising. Thus, there is a
huge difference in average annual air temperature
between the lowlands (e.g. Lindenberg 8.9 °C) and
the mountains (e.g. Śnieżka 0.8 °C)
(Fig. 2)
. Regar-
ding distribution of precipitation, the position of
the mountains relative to the main wind direction
West-Southwest is also crucial. Topography related
effects, which cause cloudiness and precipitation
formation on the Luv side (windward side) as well
as shadow ing effects which comes with decreasing
cloudiness on the Lee side (downwind side) of the
mountain ranges could be observed. Within the
project area, these effects lead to relatively low pre-
cipitation totals in the eastern Ore Mountains and
relatively high precipitation totals in the Jizera and
Giant Mountains in the same altitudes.
Additional topographic influences are represented
by small-scale climate variability (e.g. pools of cold
air, temperature inversions), which have a profound
influence on agriculture and air pollution condi-
tions. With South-Southwest flow direction “foehn
effects” (mild wind) are likely to occur. Foehn wind
leads to an increase of average temperatures at
the northern slopes of the mountains, while cooler
temperatures at the southern slopes are measured.
In contrast the so called “Bohemian wind“ indica-
tes cold temperatures, longer lasting snow cover
Regional climate change
Figure 1
KLAPS Project region
National border
Districts
Elevation
[m a.s.l.]
Germany
Poland
Czech Republic

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5
Regional climate change
Figure 2
Climate diagrams after
WALTER/LIETH
for time
period 1971– 2000
(left =
monthly mean temperature
(T
X
+T
N
/2) (red); values left
side: monthly mean of
maximum temperature
of warmest month
(above), monthly mean of
minimum temperature of
coldest month (below);
right = monthly mean
precipitation amount
(blue); below = frost
months (dark blue);
probably potential frost
months (light blue))
period and late thaw conditions in the valleys of
Neisse and Elbe as well as along Brama Lubawska
and Kamienna Góra valley basin just to the east of
the Giant Mountains, compared to the other low-
land areas.
Climate observation
Long term meteorological measurements throug-
hout Central Europe have proven that climate is
changing and average air temperature is rising
about 1
°C since 1900. Also the Polish-Saxon border
area is affected by climate change. Analyses show a
significant absolute warming trend of the average
air temperature about +1.1
°C during the period
1971–2010. The strongest and most significant
warming trend of +1.6
°C and +1.8
°C is detected
in spring and summer, respectively. In autumn and
winter calculated warming trends are more mode-
rate with +1.0
°C and +0.2
°C, respectively.
The analysis of trends of climatological days (e.g.
summer days, hot days, frost days) reflects the
increasing mean temperature
(Tab. 1)
. A signifi-
cantly increased frequency of summer and hot days
is measured. In contrast the occurrence of frost and
ice days shows an opposing trend and is not signifi-
cant. The thermal growing season lasts approxima-
tely four weeks longer and also frost free periods
have increased significantly. In contrast, the slight
increase of the frost periods indicates, that the risk
for late frost is also likely to occur despite warming
trends.
Increasing trends for precipitation of +20 mm and
+42 mm are observed both in summer and in the
winter half year, respectively. At the same time dry
periods of at least eleven days as well as heavy pre-
cipitation events show a slightly rising frequency
in summer. Due to increasing global radiation, the
average annual potential evaporation increases by
+69 mm in the project area. Further in terms of cli-
matic water balance, which is calculated from the
variables precipitation minus potential evapora-
tion, a negative trend of -88 mm is already observed
in the summer half year. This water deficit cannot be
compensated by the positive trends in winter.
C
50
40
30
20
10
0
300
100
80
60
40
20
0
mm
23.7
-2.6
Lindenberg
(OBS) (98 m)
1971–2000
9.2 C 560 m
J
F
M A M
J
J
A S O N D
C
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
300
100
80
60
40
20
0
11.6
-8.6
Śnieżka (1603 m)
1971–2000
0.8 C 1151 m
J
F
M A M
J
J
A S O N D
mm

6
Table 1
Average value of selected
climate parameters in the
period 1971–2000 and
absolute trend and range
(low lands and ridges) in
the period 1971–2010
1
Parameter
Description
Unit
Average
1971 – 2000
Absolut trend
1971 – 2010
Average annual temperature
January to December
°C
7.5
(9.0 – 3.6)
1.1
(1.2 – 1.2)
Temperature in spring
March to May
°C
7.1
(8.6 – 2.7)
1.6
(1.8 – 1.7)
Temperature in summer
June to August
°C
16.0
(17.6 – 11.7)
1.8
(1.8 – 1.8)
Temperature in autumn
September to November
°C
7.6
(9. – 3.9)
1.0
(1.0 – 1.1)
Temperature in winter
December to February
°C
-0.8
(0.6 – -4.2)
0.2
(0.5 – 0.3)
Summer days
T
max
> 25 °C
d
28
(41 – 4)
12
(16 - 3)
Hot days
T
max
> 30 °C
d
5
(8 – 0)
3
(6 – 0)
Tropical nights
T
min
> 20 °C
d
0.4
(0.5 – 0)
0.4
(0.4 – 0.1)
Frost days
T
min
< 0 °C
d
110
(88 – 170)
-6
(0.6 – -23)
Ice days
T
max
< 0 °C
d
38
(21 – 84)
3
(2 – -7)
Cold sum
∑ T< 0 °C. 1.11.–31.03.
-
256
(165 – 554)
5
(-6 – -53)
Heat wave
Min. 6 days T
max
> 90
th
percentile
1971–2000
amount
0.6
(0.6 – 0.7)
1
(1.4 – 0.8)
Duration of frost period
Amount between first and last
frost day
d
32
(23 – 63)
4
(3 – 6)
Duration of frost free period
Amount between first and last
frost free day
d
163
(173 – 127)
23
(30 – 16)
Growing season length
Amount of days T
avg
> 5 °C for
min. 6 days
d
221
(253 – 142)
28
(34 – 39)
Precipitation in summer half year
(SHY)
April to September
mm
465
(350 – 634)
20
(31 – -21)
Precipitation in winter half year (WHY)
October to March
mm
373
(258 – 548)
42
(31 – 45)
Dry periods in SHY
Min. 11 days < 1 mm
precipitation
amount
2.0
(2.4 – 1.2)
0.3
(0.3 – 0.2)
Days with heavy precipitation in SHY
Precipitation > 99
th
percentile
d
0.7
(0.6 – 0.8)
0.2
(0.2 – -0.3)
Days with heavy precipitation in WHY
Precipitation > 99
th
percentile
d
0.7
(0.6 – 0.9)
-0.3
(-0.5 – -0.2)
Potential evaporation
after Turc-Wendling
mm
605
(661 – 518)
69
(69 – 62)
Climatic water balance in SHY
Precipitation – pot. evaporation
mm
-44
(-116 – 543)
-88
(-52 – -159)
Climatic water balance in WHY
Precipitation – pot. evaporation
mm
189
(78 – 371)
33
(14 – 78)
Sunshine duration
Sunshine hours
h
1492
(1653 – 1377)
252
(246 - 215)
1 Table 1 is supplemented by using the results of
the EU project NEYMO
https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/22580

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7
Regional climate change
Agrometeorology
Agrometeorology mainly involves the interaction of
meteorological and hydrological factors and their
influence on agriculture and forestry. Temperature
based agrometeorological indices like Growing
Degree Days (GDD) or Sum of Active Temperatures
(SAT) show a significant positive trend of +214 °C
and +419 °C in the period 1971–2010 as well
(Tab.
2)
.
Particularly evident trends could be found in the
lowlands, while smaller trends are calculated for the
mountain regions. In addition to spatial variations
between regions in the lowlands and the ridges a
high year-to-year variability exists.
Based on the dimensionless drought indicator
Hydrothermal Coefficient of Selyaninov (HTC),
which is calculated using air temperature and total
precipitation amount during the growing season,
hydro-climatic conditions for the vegetation can
be determined. According to its classification in the
lowlands dry conditions (HTC < 1) can be observed,
while humid conditions (HTC > 1.3) prevail in higher
altitudes due to a higher rainfall amount. The abso-
lute trend shows a slightly positive development in
the lowlands and an evident negative trend on the
ridges of -1.53.
Biometeorology
Biometeorology studies the interactions between
weather and ecosystems, organisms and the human
body. Climate and weather conditions have a major
influence on bioclimatic and touristic suitability at a
location. The spatial and temporal variability of bio-
thermal conditions in the project region are illustra-
ted based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index
(UTCI)
(Fig. 3)
. “Moderate cold stress” (-13 to 0 °C)
can be observed in the lowland and foreland of the
mountains during the cold season. While “severe
cold stress” (-27 to -13 °C) rarely occurs, “moderate
heat stress“ (26 to 32 °C) is observed during the sum-
mer months July and August in the northern part of
the project region. In higher altitudes, the frequency
of „severe cold stress“ is rising due to falling tempe-
ratures and higher wind speeds. In summer „thermal
comfort“ (9 to 26 °C) is predominant, „heat stress“ is
not observed in the mountains. In general a signi-
ficant positive trend is calculated (e.g. Lindenberg:
+1.7 °C) for UTCI in 1971–2010, especially due to rising
temperature trends.
Table 2
Average values of selected
agrometeorological
parameters in the period
1971–2000 and absolute
trend and range (lowlands
and ridges) in the period
1971–2010 based on
gr
i
d
d
e
d
dat
a
Parameter
Description
Unit
Average
1971 – 2000
Absolut trend
1971 – 2010
Growing degree days
°C
954
(1106 – 38)
214
(265 – 120)
Sum of active temperatures
°C
2579
(2871 – 379)
419
(496 – 281)
Hydrothermal coefficient of
Selyaninov
HТC = R / 0.1 ΣT
-
0.94
(0.56 – 4.04)
0.03
(0.24 – -1.53)
Figure 3
Average annual course of
UTCI for selected stations
in the period 1971–2010

8
The Tourism Climate Index (TCI) is useful to deter-
mine the touristic recreation potential (except win-
ter sport activities)
(Tab. 3)
. There are huge spatial
and temporal differences in the project region, rea-
ching from “extremely unfavourable” to “excellent”
conditions. “Excellent” conditions (≥ 80) are rea-
ched during summer for lower located stations (e.g.
Lindenberg, Cottbus, Legnica). Such high values are
mainly caused by high temperatures, low relative
humidity and high sunshine duration during sum-
mer at these stations. While “partially favourable”
to „good“ conditions are observed in the transition
seasons, in winter only „unfavourable“ conditions
are reached. With rising altitude, low temperatures,
high relative humidity, high wind speeds and pre-
cipitation as well as unfavourable radiation condi-
tions compared to the lowland, the usefulness of
touristic potential according to TCI is decreasing. In
Zinnwald “very unfavourable” conditions in winter
and “acceptable” conditions from May to August
can be observed. For Śnieżka conditions vary from
“extremely unfavorable“ to “partially favorable”
from winter to summer.
Another opportunity to present the touristic suita-
bility of weather conditions is given by the Climate-
Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). While heat
stress (PET > 35 °C) is rarely observed throughout
the year, higher frequency of cold stress (PET < 0 °C)
is noticed from November until March. Regarding
sunny days (NN <5/8), windy days (v > 8 m/s), foggy
days (U > 93 %), sultry days (DD > 18 hPa), dry days
(RR ≤ 1 mm) and days with higher precipitation
(RR ≥ 5 mm) better conditions are reached in the
lowlands compared to the mountains. Especially
more frequent foggy and rainy days have a negative
influence on tourism potential in the southern part of
the project region. In contrast, climate conditions for
winter sport activities like cross country (SN > 10 cm)
and downhill (SN > 30 cm) skiing are very suitable in
the mountain regions from January to March..
Furthermore, the trend analysis shows a decreasing
frequency of days with snow cover above 10 and
30 cm. However, due to the high variability of snow
cover statistical significance cannot be calculated.
Table 3
Classification of monthly
TCI-values for selected
climate stations in the
period 1971–2010
(SLU – Słubice,
COT – Cottbus,
LIN – Lindenberg,
LEG – Legnica,
ZG – Zielona Góra,
DRE – Dresden, w
KUB – Kubschütz-Bautzen,
GOR – Görlitz,
JG – Jelenia Góra,
ZIN – Zinnwald,
SN – Śnieżka)
Month/Station
SLU
COT
LIN
LEG
ZG
DRE
KUB
GOR
JG
ZIN
SN
I
39
39
38
40
38
41
37
37
41
27
12
II
41
41
41
43
41
41
41
40
41
31
12
III
47
47
47
49
47
47
45
44
47
37
26
IV
56
56
56
56
56
56
54
56
54
47
28
V
65
71
67
67
63
63
61
63
59
52
37
VI
77
81
80
76
75
72
74
74
67
51
38
VII
77
81
80
78
79
76
76
78
71
53
36
VIII
77
81
80
80
79
76
74
77
73
53
44
IX
64
67
65
67
58
61
59
63
56
49
37
X
51
52
52
52
53
50
52
54
53
42
33
XI
44
43
43
43
39
43
41
42
44
32
22
XII
38
37
37
41
37
37
37
36
39
27
20
good
very good
very unfavorable
ideal
acceptable
extrem unfavorable
excellent
partially unfavorable
impossible
unfavorable

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9
Regional climate change
Figure 4
CTIS for 10-day periods
for a) Lindenberg and
b) Zinnwald in the period
1971–2010
Climate projections
Based on climate projections it is modelled, that
further emissions of greenhouse gases cause a
future global warming up to +4 °C until the end of
the 21
st
century which is connected with evident
changes in the climate system. Hence, the aim of
the European Union is to keep global warming
lower than +2 °C compared to the preindustrial
level. The climate scenario RCP2.6 represents the
necessary assumptions regarding emissions and
radiative forcing in order to reach and keep the
„2-degree-target“.
Within KLAPS a so called “scenario-ensemble” (A1B,
RCP2.6, RCP8.5) illustrates the possible bandwidth
of future climate change in the Polish-Saxon border
region. Compared to 1971–2000 an average annual
warming trend between +1.1 °C and +1.6 °C in the
period 2021–2050 and between +1.0 °C and +3.5 °C
in the period 2071–2100 is modelled, respectively
(Fig. 5)
. The highest temperature rise is expected in
summer. Spatial differences between lowland and
mountains reach from ±0.0 to +0.3 °C
poor
marginal
ideal
poor
marginal
ideal
PET< 0
PET> 0
18 < PET< 29
cloud< 5
max
wind> 8
U(%)> 93
vp> 18hPa
Prec<=1
Prec>5
snow>10
snow>30
PET< 0
PET> 0
18 < PET< 29
cloud< 5
max
wind> 8
U(%)> 93
vp> 18hPa
Prec<=1
Prec>5
snow>10
snow>30
Figure 5
Temperature change [°C]
2021–2050 (left) and
2071–2100 (right)
compared to 1971–2000 in
the KLAPS project region
Temperature change [°C]
Temperature change [°C]

10
Table 4
Scenario based bandwidth
of climate change signals
in the periods 2021–2050
and 2071–2100 compa-
red to1971–2000
(global
forcing: ECHAM5 and MPI
ESM-LR; regionalisation:
WETTREG 2013)
2
Parameter
Unit
2021–2050
2071–2100
Average annual temperature
°C
1.1 – 1.6
1.0 – 3.5
Temperature in spring
°C
0.4 – 1.1
0.8 – 2.8
Temperature in summer
°C
1.2 – 1.9
1.2 – 4.3
Temperature in autumn
°C
1.2 – 1.8
1.0 – 3.4
Temperature in winter
°C
1.2 – 1.3
1.0 – 3.6
Summer days
d
10 – 18
11 - 41
Hot days
d
3 – 6
4 – 20
Tropical nights
d
0.5 – 0.8
0.5 – 5
Frost days
d
-18 – -22
-18 – -50
Ice days
d
-9 – -11
-10 – -26
Cold sum
-
-70 – -90
-78 – -194
Heat wave
amount
1 – 2
1 – 6
Duration of frost period
d
-8 – -10
-10 – -25
Duration of frost free period
d
12 – 18
10 – 39
Growing season length
d
18 – 25
16 – 56
Precipitation summer half year (SHY)
mm
2 - -19
-12 – -68
Precipitation winter half year (WHY)
mm
3 – 5
6 – 17
Dry periods SHY
amount
0.0 – 0.1
0.1 – 0.4
Days with heavy precipitation SHY
d
0.0 – -0.1
-0.1 – -0.2
Days with heavy precipitation WHY
d
0.0 – 0.1
0.0 – 0.1
Potential evaporation
mm
25 – 51
24 – 102
Climatic water balance SHY
mm
-15 – -56
-30 – -139
Climatic water balance WHY
mm
-1 – -4
2 – -10
Sunshine duration
h
63 – 164
57 – 327
The currently observed increasing frequency of
warm days and heat waves are expected to con-
tinue in the future
(Fig. 4)
. In contrast, a decreasing
frequency of cold days and the duration of frost
periods are modelled, especially at the end of the
21
st
century. A strong increase of the growing sea-
son length contrasts with decreasing precipitation
totals in the summer half year. While observations
show slightly increasing precipitation trends,
decreasing trends are projected under all scenarios
for the summer half year as well as for annual con-
ditions. Dry periods show a slight, but not robust
increase in the summer months. With regards to
heavy precipitation, no trend is calculated. Due to
increasing evaporation and decreasing rainfall, the
climatic water balance strongly decreases during
the summer months with a high bandwidth bet-
ween all selected scenarios. Even in the winter
months, a slight decrease is projected with negative
consequences on the water availability in the pro-
ject area. In general, the projected change signals
are more pronounced at the end of the 21
st
century.
2 Table 4 is supplemented by using the results
of the EU project NEYMO
https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/22580

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11
Regional climate change
Table 5
Scenario based bandwidth
of agrometeorological
change signals in the
periods 2021–2050 and
2071–2100 compared to
1971–2000 based on
gridded data
(global
forcing: ECHAM5 and MPI
ESM-LR; regionalisation:
WETTREG 2013)
Parameter
Unit
2021– 2050
2071– 2100
Growing degree days
°C
204 – 239
362 – 555
Sum of active temperatures
°C
313 – 342
531 – 808
Hydrothermal Coefficient of Selyaninov
-
-0.13 – -0.09
-0.31 – -0.17
Figure 6
Change signal of growing
degree days [°C] in the
periods 2021–2050 (top)
und 2071–2100 (bottom)
compared to 1971–2000 in
the KLAPS project region
A1B RCP2.6 RCP8.5
2071 – 2100
vs.
1971 – 2000
2021 – 2050
vs.
1971 – 2000
Agrometeorology
According to all selected climate change scena-
rios an increase in growing degree days and sum
of active temperatures is projected until the end
of the 21
st
century
(Fig. 6)
. Similar to climatological
days a high spatial variability between lowlands and
mountains is modelled.
In contrast, the Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC)
shows a decreasing trend, especially in the moun-
tain areas. This means that regions that are cur-
rently characterised by water deficit, continue to
expand to higher altitudes in future. Depending
on the scenario, the drought limit (HTC < 1) is loca-
ted at 450 m a.s.l. (RCP2.6) and 550 m a.s.l. (RCP8.5),
respectively.

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12
Biometeorology
Future bio-thermal and touristic conditions are
characterised by a significant spatial and tempo-
ral variability in the project region. Most evident
changes and influences on tourism are projected
under the scenarios A1B and RCP8.5 at the end
of the 21
st
century. Mainly due to an increase in
air temperature, more frequent sunny days and
decreasing wind speed an increase in frequency
of heat stress during summer season is expected
in the lower located areas
(Fig. 7)
. In the mountains
changes in meteorological conditions will lead to
more appropriate conditions for tourism activities
during summer. The frequency of cold stress is
decreasing in winter; however, negative effects for
winter sport tourism are very likely to occur. By rea-
ching the “2-degree-target” (RCP2.6) the usefulness
of weather for tourism and recreation would be less
negatively affected in the lower areas of the Polish-
Saxon border region.
Figure 7
Differences in the
frequency [%] of particular
thermal loads in the
periods 2021–2050 and
2071–2100 compared to
1971–2000 under emission
scenario RCP8.5
(1 = extreme heat stress,
2 = very severe heat stress,
3 = severe heat stress,
4 = moderate heat stress,
5 = no thermal stress,
6 = slight cold stress,
7 = moderate cold stress,
8 = severe cold stress,
9 = very severe cold stress,
10 = extreme cold stress)
Zinnwald
Thermal load
Thermal load
Lindenberg

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13
Air pollution
Figure 8
Emission changes [Gg]
of SO
2
, NO
x
and NH
3
in
the KLAPS project region
in the period 2000–2030
(5-year-steps)
Emission of N or S [Gg]
Figure 9
Deposition budget
of SO
x
, NO
x
and NH
x
in
the period 2010–2030
(5-year-steps) in the
KLAPS project region
KLAPS domain deposition budget
[Mg N or S]
2010
2015
2020
2025 2030
2010
2015 2020
2025 2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
NH
x
NO
x
SO
x
Due to large brown coal mining and combustion
and an intensive chemical industry during the 70s
and 80s, the area between Saxony, Lower Silesia and
Bohemia was known as the “Black Triangle”. After
the year 1990 the emissions of coal combustion was
significantly abated. Potential reasons are ecology,
but also political and economic changes in Central
Europe. The emission abatements were especially
significant for sulphur (SO
2
) and oxidised nitrogen
(NO
x
). Based on emission projections for the year
2030 the downward trend is very likely to continue
in future
(Fig. 8)
. For ammonia (NH
3
), after a slight
decrease in 2005, emissions are expected to stay on
a constant high level with 30 Gg towards the year
2030.
Following the general emission trend, a continuing
reduction in the deposition of sulphur and oxidised
nitrogen is modelled
(Fig. 9)
. In contrast, the deposi-
tion of reduced nitrogen remains at a constant level.
Moreover, deposition of NH
x
brings majority of the
nitrogen mass deposited in the KLAPS project area
after year 2005.
Air pollution

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14
Spatial distribution of oxidised sulphur (SO
x
) and
reduced nitrogen (NH
x
) in the year 2010 are presen-
ted in
Fig. 10
. The largest deposition is modelled
for mountainous areas (because of high wet depo-
sition) and in close vicinity of the largest emission
sources. These results are confirmed by measure-
ments of IMGW-PIB.
In addition to changes in emissions, an influence
of climatic changes on depositions of various air
pollutants is visible. Especially at the end of the 21
st
century deposition rates are decreasing by approx.
0.5 Gg compared to 2021–2050 under the scenarios
A1B and RCP8.5
(Fig. 11)
. This is primarily due to the
projected decrease in annual total of precipitation
in the entire project region. Overall, deposition
reduction due to climate change is smaller compa-
red to changes in emission abatements.
Figure 11
Sulphur deposition [Gg]
under selected climate
scenarios and emission
prognosis in the year
2030 in the KLAPS project
region
A1B
2021–2050
A1B
2071–2100
RCP2.6
2021–2050
RCP2.6
2071–2100
RCP8.5
2021–2050
RCP8.5
2071–2100
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
Deposition in Gg
Figure 10
Total deposition of SO
x
(left) and NH
x
(right) in the
year 2010

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15
Efforts in recent decades to reduce air pollution are
reflected in the project area based on the environ-
mental load limits, the so called critical load. At
present decreasing sulphur depositions lead to a
potential acidification risk in only 10 % of the obser-
ved ecosystems
(Fig. 12)
. In particular coniferous
forests are sensitive to acidification. According to
future sulphur deposition prognoses almost all
ecosystems will be protected against acidification
in the year 2030. Despite nitrogen abatements an
eutrophication risk is identified in more than 60 %
of the receptor area in the year 2010. Affected eco-
systems are coniferous forests but also marshes and
peat bogs show a relatively high risk of eutrophica-
tion. In the year 2030 eutrophication risk is likely to
reach 40 % of the ecosystems. The overall goal to
protect all of the ecosystems from acidification and
eutrophication, which is defined by the Convention
on Biodiversity (CBD), cannot be achieved with the
current abatement efforts.
Critical Load of ecosystems
15
Critical Load of ecosystems
Figure 12
Exceedance of Critical
Load for acidification
(top) and eutrophication
(below) dependent on
deposition prognoses in
the period 2000–2030
Very high risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Very low risk
No elevated risk

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16
The interactions between reduction of deposi-
tion driven by environmental protection policies
and effects of predicted changes in the climate
need to be considered as well. Rising temperatu-
res and decreasing annual precipitation sums lead
to increasing sensitivity of ecosystems against
nitrogen depositions, at least at the end of the 21
st
century
(Fig. 13)
. The most negative effect is given
under RCP8.5 run 1, while under RCP2.6 an increase
in sensitivity is less significant. On average the diffe-
rence between the critical load for eutrophication is
about 3 kg N ha
-1
a
-1
in both scenarios.
In total only half of the measurements to reduce
emissions have positive effects on the protection
of ecosystems. The other half is compensated due
to changed climate conditions. Hence, future air
pollution policies should integrate both, emission
as well as climate changes.
Figure 13
Risk classes for eutro-
phication of ecosystems
dependent on depositions
in the year 2000 (left) and
2030 (right) and different
climate periods under
scenario RCP8.5 run 1
Very high risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Very low risk
No elevated risk

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17
Consequences of climate changes
Based on the results obtained in the project KLAPS
statements for expected climate change impacts
in the study area can be derived for the investiga-
ted fields. Additionally, conclusions reached by a
number of previous studies (e.g. NEYMO, REGKLAM,
vulnerability study for Saxony, etc.
3
) are supple-
mented to the following overview. The following
list does not claim to be complete and may differ
from the general statements because of regional
and local characteristics.
Consequences of climate changes
Agriculture
• improved yield profitability, especially in cool
growing regions of the highlands in the southern
part of the project region
• increasing yield and quality of fruits and wine
grapes with rising sunshine duration in autumn
• increasing yield of winter fruits and thermophilic
crops under sufficient water availability condi-
tions
• decreasing yield stability due to high annual vari-
ability
• especially in the northern part of the project
area yield losses due to negative climatic water
balance during the growing season
• higher yield variation on sandy soils in case of
water requiring crops like corn, potatoes and
beets particularly in dry years
• increased drying of soil in the summer season
due to increased evaporation and increasing
frequency and duration of dry periods
• increasing risk potential of loss of fertile agricul-
tural soils by water erosion due to heavy rainfalls,
especially after previous droughts
qualitative loss to total failure of crop due to heavy
rainfall and hail events (e.g. wine, tree fruits)
• increased wind erosion during dry periods
• late frost risk due to early growing season and
early seeding
• immigration and spreading of thermophilic pest
species
• in some cases, limited use of pesticides during
heat and dry periods
Picture: LfULG
3 References given in
further information on climate change
mitigation and adaptation in Saxony
(page 21)

image
18
Forestry
• shifting of silviculture regions due to climatic
changes (warmer and drier conditions)
• occurrence of new forest compositions (sparse
forests)
• changing occurrence and distribution of native
tree species
• especially in the higher altitudes natural or deli-
berate spread of thermophilic tree species
• loss of vitality and reduction of timber volume
in the lowlands due to negative climatic water
balance and dry periods during the summer
months
• reduced productivity of spruce due to drought
stress
• increased reproduction and immigration of new
species of insects
• increased risk of forest fires
Picture: Marco Schwarzak Fotografie

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19
Water balance and water management
• especially in the lowland declining groundwater
levels due to reduced groundwater recharge as a
result of decreasing rainfall, increasing evapora-
tion rates and supply of surface water during dry
periods in the summer months
• changes in substance conversion, dissolution
properties and groundwater biology due to hig-
her groundwater temperatures
• increasing risk potential of river ecosystems due
to periods of low water and increased water tem-
peratures
• increasing reduction, siltation or more frequent
drying up of water bodies with a small catchment
area by increased evaporation and precipitation
deficits
• reduction of runoff by rainfall deficits in summer
• reduced inflows to reservoirs
significant negative climatic water balance during
the summer months
• risk of blue-green algae bloom by rising water
temperatures and radiation, nitrogen and phos-
phor oversupply and reduced inflow in the sum-
mer season
worsening of ecological conditions due to increa-
sed sediment and pollutant discharges during
heavy rainfall events
• increasing risk potential of local flooding and
backwater of wastewater systems
• increasing flood risk due to convective heavy
rainfalls in summer
• reduction of flood probability as a result of
decreasing snow cover (snow melting water) due
to warmer temperatures in winter
• acidification risk of mining lakes and ground
water due to delayed flooding or a lack of water
supply
Aquaculture and fish farming
• destruction of fish farms by heavy rainfall and
flooding
• interruption of winter rest and energy losses of
fish due to a lack of ice cover and higher water
temperatures
• increasing problems of new fish diseases
• loss of profit and fish mortality due to water
shor
t age
Picture: LfULG
Consequences of climate changes
Picture: LfULG

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20
Settlement areas
• increased air pollution due to more frequent and
longer lasting dry periods
• destabilization of urban soil water balance
• impairment of vitality and important regulatory
function of urban green areas due to more
frequent and longer lasting dry periods and
changed site conditions
• requirement of technical changes in buildings
(e.g. demand for air conditioning in summer, heat
protection, flood protection)
impairment of indoor climate due to warmer tem-
peratures
• reduced need for heating in winter
Population
• decreasing quality of stay and well-being of the
population due to warmer temperatures (e.g. hot
days, tropical nights and heat waves)
• increasing health problems (e.g. allergies, infec-
tious diseases, cardiovascular disorders) due to
warmer temperatures and increased particulate
air pollution
• decreasing cold stress in winter
Tourism
• extension of the climate-related travel time
extension of the open-air season (e.g. beer garden
and swimming season)
• increased heat stress, particular in cities and low-
lands
• increasing tourist potential of higher altitudes in
summer
• shortening or absence of the winter season by
decreased snow cover
• increasing weather variability
• increased impact of weather extremes on the
tourism potential of a region
Picture: Wolfgang Pehlemann

21
Further information on climate change mitigation and adaptation in Saxony
Climate Adaptation in Saxony – website of the SMUL:
www.klima.sachsen.de
Energy and Climate Programme of Saxony 2012:
http://www.umwelt.sachsen.de/umwelt/klima/30157
.htm
Climate Compendium Saxony – Climate Strategies:
http://www.umwelt.sachsen.de/umwelt/download/Klimakompendium_ST.pdf
Regional Climate Information System:
www.rekis.org
Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden:
http://www.regklam.de/fileadmin/Daten_Redaktion/Publikationen/
Regionales-Klimaanpassungsprogramm_Lang_121101.pdf
Climate change and agriculture – adaptation strategy of agriculture to climate change in Saxony:
https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/11557
Adaptation of the Saxon crop farming to climate change:
https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/11449
Vulnerability analysis of Lusatia and Lower Silesia:
http://www.rpv-oberlausitz-niederschlesien.de/projekte/regionales-energie-und-klimaschutzkonzept-
klimaanpassungsstrategie/regionale-klimaanpassungsstrategie/ergebnisse.html
Good Practice Guide – tourism and biodiversity in a changing climate:
http://www.bfn.de/fileadmin/MDB/documents/themen/sportundtourismus/
Leitfaden_IOER_barrierefrei.pdf
Analysis of the need for action on climate adaptation:
Bernhofer, C. et al. (2007): Analyse zum Handlungsbedarf im Bereich Klimaanpassung.
Studie im Auftrag des Landesamtes für Umwelt und Geologie, Dresden.
Publications in the EU project KLAPS
Project publications (online and printed version available):
Volume 1: Climate in the Polish-Saxon border area:
https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/21673
Volume 2: Climate projections, air pollution and critical load of ecosystems:
https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/23356
Project reports (online available):
Critical load of ecosystems: https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/22073
Development of windroses for KLAPS: https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/23037
Ozone analysis in the Polish-Saxon border area: https://publikationen.sachsen.de/bdb/artikel/12687
Contact
Mr. Andreas Völlings
Mr. Maciej Kryza
Mrs. Irena Otop
Saxon State Agency for Environment,
University of Wrocław
Institute of Meteorology and Water
Agriculture and Geology
Institute of Geography and
Management – National Research
Unit 51: Climate, air pollution
Regional Development
Institute, Wrocław
phone: +49 (0)351 2612 5101
phone: +48 7134 85 441
phone: +48 7132 84 1 07
E-Mail: andreas.voellings@smul.sachsen.de
E-Mail: maciej.kryza@uni.wroc.p
E-Mail: Irena.Otop@imgw.pl
Internet:
www.klaps.sachsen.de
www.klaps-project.eu
Consequences of climate changes

22
Issued by:
Saxon State Agency for Environment, Agriculture and Geology
Pillnitzer Platz 3, 01326 Dresden
phone: + 49 351 2612-0
fax: + 49 351 2612-1099
e-mail: lfulg@smul.sachsen.de
www.smul.sachsen.de/lfulg
Edited by:
Susann Schwarzak, Irena
Otop, Maciej Kryza, Andreas Völlings
Cover picture:
Hoch3 GmbH
using the figures „KLAPS Project area“ (Mehler et al. 2014) and
„Tablets with a bar graph“ (pedrosek/Shutterstock.com)
Layout:
Hoch3 GmbH, Berlin
Pr
ess date:
05.01.2015
(2. revised edition)
Obtaining:
The brochure is not available in print, but can be downloaded
as a PDF file at
www.klaps-project.eu
.
Distribution note:
This brochure is published by the Saxon State Government as part of its constitutional obligation to inform
the public. It may not be used by political parties or their candidates or workers in the period of six months
before an election for the purpose of campaigning. This applies to all elections.
Imprint

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